Global olive oil production is expected to exceed the five-year average in the 2024-25 crop year, as production decreases in Europe and rises in the Middle East and North Africa.
The International Olive Council forecasts that global olive oil production will climb to 3.38 million metric tons in the 2024-25 crop year, a 32% increase compared to last year and 13% above the five-year average.
Spain, Tunisia and Turkey were the driving forces behind this increase, with olive oil production expected to rise by 51% to 1.3 million tons in Spain, 55% to 340,000 tons in Tunisia and 109% to a record high 450,000 tons in Turkey compared to the previous year.
Producers in Spain attributed the improved yield, which exceeded the five-year average by nearly 17%, to good crop conditions, including moderate spring temperatures and a wet winter that recharged previously parched rivers and aquifers.
Timely rain is anticipated to spur Tunisian producers onto their bumper crop, which is estimated to be the largest since the record high 440,000 tons in 2019-20 and tied for the second-highest of all time.
On the northeastern coast of the Mediterranean, Turkish producers said favorable growing conditions and the absence of olive pests in most producing regions were responsible for the harvest rebound.
Along with the significant harvest rebound in Spain, farmers and millers in Greece and Portugal also experienced production increases.
Olive oil yields are anticipated to rise 43% in Greece compared to 2023-24 to 250,000 tons as many groves enter an ‘on-year’ in the natural alternate bearing cycle of the olive tree.
However, there is concern that yields may be lower than initially hoped.
On the other side of Europe, Portuguese farmers and millers anticipate a steady production rise of 21 percent compared to last season, reaching 195,000 tons, the country’s second-highest yield. Similarly to Spain, a wet winter, moderate spring temperatures, and an ‘on-year’ for many growers resulted in the bumper crop.
European Union olive oil production increased by 29% from 2023-24, reaching 1.97 million tons.
Five olive oil-producing member states (including Cyprus and Slovenia) experienced increased harvests; production remained the same in Croatia, while France and Italy experienced a harvest decline. More