Global olive oil production is expected to fall to 2.9 million tons in the 2022-23 crop year, according to the latest estimates published by the United States Department of Agriculture.
According to USDA data, production will fall by 11% compared to the previous crop year and finish 8% below the rolling 5 year average.
The USDA attributed the production decrease to the anticipation of smaller olive harvests in the European Union, Morocco, Turkey and Tunisia. USDA economists mainly attributed the decrease to the natural alternate bearing cycle of the olive tree.
The USDA also expects global exports to decline by 11%, attributing the drop in olive oil trade to lower yields in the largest producing countries.
In the European Union, exports are forecasted to fall by 75,000 tons to reach 825,000 tons in the 2022-23 crop year. Exports from Tunisia and Turkey are also expected to decline to 70,000 tons and 56,000 tons, respectively.
Logically, global imports also are expected to fall. EU imports are projected to drop 25,000 tons to finish at 175,000 tons. However, US imports are expected to remain steady at 375,000 tons.
With production, exports and imports falling faster than consumption, global ending stocks are once again expected to tighten.
EU ending stocks are forecast to fall to a 6 year low at 301,000 tons. Previous dips in the EU ending stocks have resulted in higher prices for producers in the 27-member bloc. More