According to this report, the 11.5M hectares of olive groves spread across the five continents is forecast to reach an olive oil production close to 20.3M tons in the coming season. Six of the seven largest producers (Spain, Greece, Italy, Tunisia, Turkey and Portugal), which account for 85.27% of the olive oil world production, will increase slightly.
According to GEA, Spain is projected to register an increase in yield of 1.3% over the previous season, reaching a production of 1.298,700 tons; while Greece will again be the second largest producer, very close to Italy, with 294,100 tons - an increase of 13.1% up from the previous season.
Italy is expected to increase its production by 18.8%, up to 288,600 tons; followed by Tunisia, with just over 202,900 tons and an incredible 202% increase in its production; Turkey, with 200,400 tons and an increase of 13.2%; and Portugal, which will remain at 112,800 tons and an increase of 20%.
Morocco is forecast to produce 107,100 tons of olive oil, 2.5% less than the previous season.
GEA highlighted the comparative production yields between Italy and Greece; between Tunisia and Turkey; and between Morocco and Portugal.
GEA said that Spain clearly maintains its hegemony as the largest world producer, although Portugal's production increase is particularly striking. GEA stated that new olive plantations developed over the past five years will enable Portugal to become a steady producer of over 100,000 tons, consequently this year it is expected to exceed its historical record of 109,100 tons in the 2015-16 season, to reach 112,800 tons this season. The new infrastructure developments and investments made in the Alentejo area are the key to explaining this steady growth in recent years.
Slight increase in prices
On the other hand, GEA said that the planned link with the 2017-18 campaign will be below 200,000 tons, so it will be 'technically zero'. "This figure, along with the stability in production compared to the previous season and the data of a slight increase in consumption, suggest that the market will have a very stable price evolution at around 4 €/kg (AU$5.97/kg) with slight rebounds in their case caused by changing weather conditions, until the end of the upcoming season," said Rafael Cardenas, director of GEA. More